White-tailed Deer Season Forecast
To hunters, springtime in Texas is often viewed as chasing turkeys through hot, humid weather, or hanging up the firearm for a fishing pole. For white-tailed deer, spring represents a time for growth: body growth, antler growth, and population growth. With the rut well behind us, bucks transition to meeting nutritional demands to recover weight lost during the breeding season. Bucks also capitalize on the spring “green-up” by allocating resources to antler development. Perhaps even more importantly, does use the spring months to meet the demands of gestation as they enter their final trimester and to create fat reserves to meet the demands of lactation. Does cannot physically consume enough daily calories to meet lactation demands to raise fawns, so they must rely on fat reserves that they gain during the spring.
Landowners and hunters understand deer management doesn't begin when deer season opens. All of those forms of growth previously mentioned rely on proper habitat and herd management, as well as receiving bountiful spring rain from mother nature. Factors that influence the outlook of deer season include historical deer populations, fawn recruitment from past years, age structure of the deer population, supplemental feed or lack thereof, past seasons harvest, habitat quality and quantity, and livestock grazing practices. By properly managing the land, we're essentially setting the table for a successful deer season.
Although the majority Texas is not experiencing drought conditions as summer begins, this spring did not “green up” as many hunters had hoped for. There were certainly portions of the state that received timely rains, but in late March, over 80% of the state was classified under drought conditions. Areas in the Cross Timbers, Pineywoods, and Post Oak Savannah were the rainfall winners and should expect an above-average deer season. The Edwards Plateau and South Texas were this year's unfortunate bullseye of springtime drought conditions, but both ecoregions have received significant rainfall this summer, with areas of the Edwards Plateau suffering from catastrophic flooding. Summer rainfall can certainly benefit antler development, but not as much as if it had occurred in the springtime. Mild July temperatures and rainfall will aid in fawn survival throughout the state.
Overall, the 2025-26 season is expected to be good in terms of harvest numbers and opportunities for quality bucks. Although some ecoregions may have missed out on adequate spring rainfall, hunters will still have plenty of opportunities to harvest a quality buck this season. The saying that “Everything is Bigger in Texas” can certainly apply to Texas' deer hunters and its deer population. Texas leads the nation in terms of the number of deer hunters, annual harvest, and deer population. Even an average year in Texas is worth hunting and those landowners who properly manage the state's natural resources have shown year after year that their management can pay off.
Deer Population
Texas has a strong white-tailed deer population that is still able to flourish in “average” conditions. Following an 11-year high fawn recruitment of 47% in 2024, the Texas deer population has climbed to 5 million white-tailed deer and is recovering from the severe drought conditions three years ago. This estimate is a 6.6% increase from the 2023 estimate of 4.7 million white-tailed deer. Back-to-back years of above-average fawn recruitment helped boost the population and will aid in the age structure of Texas' deer population for years to come. The 5-year-average statewide fawn recruitment is 37%.
The most recent statewide adult sex ratios were estimated to be 3.7 does per buck, a slight increase from the 5-year average of 3.4 does per buck and the highest on record in the last two decades. Although improved during the 2024-25 season, statewide deer harvest continues to be skewed towards bucks and contributes to the skewed doe to buck ratio. Big Game Harvest Survey results indicated 425,529 (51%) bucks and 411,480 (49%) does were harvested in 2024. Harvest was up 13% from 2023, largely due to an increase in the deer population and slight increase in antlerless harvest. Statewide, hunters enjoyed a 67% success rate, harvesting an estimated 7.4 deer per 1,000 acres. Hunter densities are relatively low for such a large state, with an estimated 6.7 hunters per 1,000 acres. Highest hunter densities are in the Cross Timbers, Edwards Plateau, and Pineywoods ecoregions, with an estimated 8.4 to 9.5 hunters per 1,000 acres. Trends in harvest success and hunter densities should be similar in 2025. Total harvest numbers are expected to be average or above average this season and the increase in the ratio of does per buck should produce plenty of opportunities for hunters to harvest does this season.
Hunters should keep in mind white-tailed deer density estimates, adult sex ratio, buck age structure, average antler quality, and harvest rates vary dramatically depending on the ecoregion of the state your favorite hunting spot is located. Even in areas with large deer populations, the quality and quantity of native habitat that is available to attract and hold white-tailed deer greatly influences the number and quality of deer you may observe during the season. A closer look at the various ecoregion estimates below may provide an additional bit of information hunters would need to plan for the upcoming season.
Ecoregion Estimates
Edwards Plateau
The Edwards Plateau, commonly called the Hill Country, has the highest deer population in the state with an estimate of 1,628,717 deer. Severe drought conditions in this ecoregion over the last few years has lowered the population around 20%, but the deer population increased nearly 8% from 2023 and the Edwards Plateau still holds the highest density of deer in the state. Hunters looking for opportunities to see lots of deer this fall should put this area on the priority list. Hunter success during 2024 in this ecoregion was 77% with an estimated 11.1 deer harvested per 1,000 acres. Within the Edwards Plateau, there are six deer management units with densities ranging from 26 deer per 1,000 acres to 185 deer per 1,000 acres. The area around Llano and Mason counties (DMU 6) has the highest density in the region, with an estimated 495,800 deer in this DMU alone. Doe harvest is especially important in this DMU to relieve browsing pressure on the habitat by lowering deer densities and balancing an appropriate doe to buck ratio. Within the Edwards Plateau, hunters should expect a strong number of bucks in the 4.5 - 5.5-year-old age class because of improved fawn recruitment in 2020 and 2021. A below-average fawn crop in 2022 created an age gap in the 3.5-year-old age class, but good fawn crops of 48% and 52% in 2023 and 2024 will provide proper age structure in years to come. Hunters looking for older age class bucks should focus on DMU 7 South, the area between Hondo to Del Rio and north of Highway 90. The 3-year average in this DMU indicates that 62.5% of the bucks harvested are 4.5 years old or older. All other DMUs in the Edwards Plateau still offer great opportunities at harvesting a mature buck, with the 3-year average indicating 50% or more of harvested bucks are 4.5 years old or older. Despite what seems like perpetual drought conditions every spring, the Edwards Plateau is a great deer hunting region, especially for hunters looking for quantity of animals. It consistently produces one of the highest hunter success rates in the state. The recent catastrophic flooding events in the Hill Country may have localized impacts to fawns around river and stream channels, but most deer were able to reach higher ground.
South Texas Plains
The South Texas Plains ecoregion is known for mature bucks and above average antler quality relative to most other areas of the state. For hunters seeking a once-in-a-lifetime trophy, South Texas is often regarded as the premier big buck destination. Three deer management units are represented in South Texas and deer densities range from 24 deer per 1,000 acres to 52 deer per 1,000 acres. Estimates show a population of nearly 527,000 white-tailed deer, and although drought conditions can limit growth from year to year, the population has been slowly growing over the last decade. Periodic drought conditions in South Texas leads to erratic fawn crops that keep population growth at a slow pace and require good habitat management and population management practices to produce the quality of deer South Texas is known for. Sex ratios have increased to an average of 3.1 does per buck across the three South Texas DMUs, which is an increase of the 1.8 - 2.4 does per buck that the ecoregion has experienced the last several years. The 4.5 - 5.5-year-old age classes will be abundant and offer plenty of mature bucks in the coming years. Many ranches in the region manage for older age class bucks and the 5.5 - 6.5 age class should be well represented this year. Properties “stacking” bucks into the mature age classes over the last several years should see a good pool of mature bucks available for harvest. Bucks 4.5 or older represented 56% of the buck harvest in 2024 across all South Texas, much higher than the statewide average of 45%. This trend in older age class harvest is expected to continue with the 2025 season. Hunter success was estimated to be 78% with an estimated harvest of 8.9 deer per 1,000 acres in 2024. Portions of deep South Texas have received adequate rainfall this spring and will likely have an above-average deer season, but the majority of South Texas was under severe or extreme drought conditions this spring, but early summer rains will help antler quality be average for 2025-26.
Post Oak Savannah
Estimated deer densities in the Post Oak Savannah ecoregion range from 28 to 64 deer per 1,000 acres. Five deer management units are represented in the Post Oak region and the highest deer populations can be found in the southern part of the region (DMU 11 and 12), generally anywhere along the Interstate 10 corridor from San Antonio to Houston. Most recent estimates for DMU 11 indicate a density of 64 deer per 1,000 acres. Deer densities gradually decrease moving north, with the lowest deer densities in DMU 19 North and DMU 19 South, which are areas confronted with habitat fragmentation challenges. Similar to other areas of the state, the northern portion of the Post Oak Savannah ecoregion has enjoyed a good spring which should contribute to average or above average fawn production this year. The sex ratio is skewed to an average of 4.5 does per buck. Age and antler surveys indicate that 42% of the buck harvest was represented by bucks 4.5 years old or older in 2024, which is the highest on record for the ecoregion. Hunters experienced a good harvest last season, with harvest success at 64% and a harvest rate of 7 deer per 1,000 acres. There should be a good crop of bucks in the 5.5+ year-old age classes based on previous fawn crops, so hunters should have a great season chasing mature bucks. Above-average fawn crops in both 2023 and 2024 have produced many young bucks but hunters should practice patience and give these bucks a few more years to reach maturity. The southern portion of this ecoregion experienced moderate to severe drought conditions this spring, but hunters will still have opportunities to harvest a quality buck that is at least 4.5 years old.
Pineywoods
Most recent survey data estimated the Pineywoods deer population at 326,747 and has remained very stable over the previous four years. Among the five DMUs represented in this region, deer density estimates range from a low of 4.6 deer per 1,000 acres in DMU 13, the area between Houston and Beaumont, to a high of 31.8 deer per 1,000 acres in DMU 17 around the Tyler area. Due to relatively low, but consistent, fawn production in recent years (21% - 30%), the population has remained stable and has not experienced much growth. Properties that manage for quality deer habitat often see much higher deer densities, with some localized areas exceeding 40 - 50 deer per 1,000 acres. Habitat management is critical in the Pineywoods to help sustain deer populations and TPWD biologists work with numerous landowners and timber companies to restore and maintain quality deer habitat in the region. Based on previous year's fawn production, hunters should expect a decent cohort of 5.5-year-old bucks, but a below-average cohort of 3.5- and 4.5-year-old bucks. Hunters should continue to practice quality deer management and allow bucks to reach at least 4.5 years old, especially with the lower number of young bucks on the horizon. Buck harvest from 2024 indicates that 29% of the harvested bucks were 4.5 years old or older, which is the highest on record for the Pinewyoods and a byproduct of the antler restriction regulation and hunters being more aware of the antler potential of older bucks. Hunters should see a good number of mature bucks, but should be aware of not harvesting too many middle-aged bucks as those age cohorts are not as strong this season and they will become mature in a year or two. Hunter success in 2024 was estimated to be 59% and a harvest of 7.1 deer per 1,000 acres. Hunters in the Pineywoods have had good seasons as of late and should expect another good season in 2025.
Cross Timbers
The Cross Timbers ecoregion in north Texas has the second highest deer population (787,765 deer) in the state, behind the Edwards Plateau. The Cross Timbers encompasses five DMUs with deer densities ranging from 15.9 to 96.7 deer per 1,000 acres. Highest deer densities occur in DMU 23 (96.7 deer per 1,000 acres) and DMU 24 (62.6 deer per 1,000 acres) in the central portion of the region. Recently, harvest rates have significantly increased in the ecoregion, but population growth has remained relatively stable in the ecoregion due to fawn crops averaging 46% over the last three years. Because of the relatively consistent fawn production, buck age structure is generally well distributed across all age classes. However, hunters will likely see fewer 3.5-year-old bucks this year due to poor fawn recruitment in 2022, but every other age class will be well represented. Hunters focusing on mature bucks should not be disappointed with the upcoming season. Harvest data from 2024 indicates that 40% of buck harvest was represented by bucks 4.5 or older. With the Cross Timbers exhibiting great buck age structure, that trend is expected to continue into 2025. Hunter success for 2024 was estimated to be 69% and a harvest of 9.7 deer per 1,000 acres. Timely spring rainfall should yield similar harvest rates for this year and historical fawn recruitment should produce an above-average mature buck harvest.
Eastern and Western Rolling Plains
The Eastern and Western Rolling Plains ecoregions have experienced population growth in recent years, with deer densities ranging from 38 to 92 deer per 1,000 acres in the Eastern Rolling Plains and 18 to 38 deer per 1,000 acres in the Western Rolling Plains. Sporadic fawn production over the last several years has created age gaps in some of the middle and mature age classes, but 6.5-year-old buck numbers will remain steady. In 2024, 52% of the buck harvest in the Western Rolling Plains was represented by bucks 4.5 or older, the second highest in the state behind South Texas. Because of larger property sizes and relatively light hunting pressure, as well as more interest in deer management, harvest trends of older age class bucks are expected to continue in 2025. In the Eastern Rolling Plains, bucks 4.5 or older represented 44% of the harvest in 2024, which is likely due to lower fawn recruitment in 2020. With sporadic fawn crops over recent years, mature buck harvest will continue to fluctuate each season. Harvest success is nearly identical in both ecoregions, with a 2024 estimate in the Eastern Rolling plains at 71% and 70% in the Western Rolling Plains. Harvest per 1,000 acres in 2024 was estimated to be 5.7 in the Eastern Rolling Plains and 1.8 deer per 1,000 acres in the Western Rolling Plains. The lower harvest rates in the western portion of the region are not unexpected, with much lower deer densities and lower hunter densities of 1.8 hunters per 1,000 acres. Both Rolling Plains ecoregions have been a hotbed for mature bucks, with both of them in the top four ecoregions for mature buck harvest, and 2025 is expected to be another great season.
Gross Boone & Crockett Scores
The Pineywoods and portions of the Post Oak Savannah and Cross Timbers received timely spring rainfall and should expect above-average antler quality. Despite initial springtime drought conditions in most of the state, the late-spring rainfall will boost antler quality back around average to slightly above average for most of the state and slightly below average in those localized areas that may have missed out on much needed rain during the spring, particularly in the Edwards Plateau and South Texas. Antler growth is directly correlated to April-May-June rainfall and the improved habitat that follows. By June 2025, 70% of Texas experienced either no drought conditions or was only considered abnormally dry. However, much of these rains didn't occur until late spring and only 14% of Texas was considered drought free in late March. Summer rains and mild seasonal temperatures will help fawn survival this year. Those ranches that do a good job managing the deer population through harvest and improving the native habitat will see consistent improvements in the deer population over time. Although hunters can harvest a mature buck with a quality set of antlers in any area of Texas, there are a few regions of the state that typically produce a greater number of larger antlered bucks, namely the South Texas brush country and the Western Rolling Plains. Average Boone and Crockett scores of a buck that is 5.5 years old or older is about 131” for bucks in South Texas and 133” in the Western Rolling Plains. Other ecoregions of the state can also produce exceptional bucks, with average B&C scores in those regions ranging between 126-130” if they can survive to 5.5 years of age.
Table 1. Gross Boone & Crockett Scores by Ecoregion
| Ecological Region | 3.5 Age Group | 4.5 Age Group | 5.5+ Age Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackland Prairie | 116 6/8 | 127 4/8 | 130 7/8 |
| Cross Timbers | 111 6/8 | 122 3/8 | 126 7/8 |
| Eastern Rolling Plains | 112 4/8 | 122 3/8 | 129 4/8 |
| Edwards Plateau | 99 0/8 | 110 6/8 | 118 0/8 |
| Pineywoods | 112 3/8 | 123 3/8 | 126 3/8 |
| Post Oak Savannah | 112 2/8 | 121 3/8 | 124 0/8 |
| South Texas Plains | 107 3/8 | 122 3/8 | 131 0/8 |
| Western Rolling Plains | 113 1/8 | 124 4/8 | 133 3/8 |
| Statewide | 108 6/8 | 118 5/8 | 124 0/8 |
Hunters are reminded to review the White-tailed Deer Texas Parks & Wildlife Website Outdoor Annual webpage to review this year's season dates, bag limits, and information about proper carcass disposal. Hunters following these regulations are allowed to debone their carcass to aid in the unintentional transmission of wildlife diseases.